Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 3.291490 3.961920 4.712257 5.611013 6.654851 7.825447 9.233850
2025-03-30 2.219606 3.033836 4.045245 5.380803 7.083247 9.164775 11.884217
2025-04-06 1.652363 2.519973 3.697192 5.381809 7.695740 10.722977 14.935504
2025-04-13 1.264194 2.127867 3.395183 5.339508 8.184634 12.121936 17.890269
2025-04-20 1.073049 1.965818 3.365639 5.641068 9.146917 14.222070 21.966106
2025-04-27 0.905873 1.797245 3.283670 5.830827 9.941460 16.134357 25.926571
2025-05-04 0.791682 1.689257 3.271548 6.113095 10.888667 18.335923 30.476065
2025-05-11 0.653938 1.504934 3.093187 6.083928 11.317917 19.762760 33.945577
2025-05-18 0.519816 1.294219 2.826818 5.854681 11.372363 20.579474 36.500194
2025-05-25 0.408010 1.100687 2.554865 5.567755 11.279643 21.125934 38.634621
2025-06-01 0.343024 0.994133 2.434092 5.543570 11.642354 22.450549 42.128475
2025-06-08 0.294145 0.913014 2.350779 5.577870 12.109221 23.981028 46.064033
2025-06-15 0.248073 0.828340 2.248104 5.565314 12.499176 25.432139 50.016786
2025-06-22 0.195999 0.711686 2.049693 5.319281 12.401528 25.989756 52.436414
2025-06-29 0.165934 0.648693 1.966806 5.314072 12.787026 27.469444 56.613930
2025-07-06 0.139127 0.586732 1.873676 5.270040 13.083040 28.796039 60.591844
2025-07-13 0.129670 0.579027 1.921757 5.567387 14.139364 31.673397 67.650400
2025-07-20 0.117127 0.556529 1.925038 5.754698 14.970069 34.158743 74.106890
2025-07-27 0.108793 0.546879 1.962952 6.033666 16.031068 37.175865 81.758628
2025-08-03 0.092706 0.501236 1.886062 6.004788 16.382888 38.765372 86.708376
2025-08-10 0.074463 0.438675 1.743320 5.778123 16.245499 39.323200 89.638895
2025-08-17 0.058407 0.377484 1.589477 5.494460 15.936334 39.486121 91.771413
2025-08-24 0.049769 0.346986 1.530586 5.470550 16.260601 41.032203 96.813856